The consumer MVNO subscriber market will continue to grow overall through 2012, but performance will vary by region and force MVNOs to redefine their roles, responsibilities and survival skills, according to a new study by Juniper Research.

Juniper Research fprecasts the total number of consumer MVNO subscribers will increase from around 93m globally in 2006 to almost 352m by 2012. Revenues to MVNOs will also rise, from $15bn in 2006 to $67bn by 2012. Of this, $42bn will be from voice services, with the remainder being accounted for by mobile data services, mainly music and games. However, these figures conceal wide variations by region and in some cases actually mask declines during the second half of the forecast period, for example in the US and Western Europe.

Highlights of changes underway include:

• To succeed in the long-term, voice-only MVNOs will need a strong brand and retail presence to achieve and maintain critical mass
• Mobile entertainment MVNOs will only succeed in niche segments, due to the predominance of on-portal services
• MVNOs will emerge from outside the telecoms industry that are able to identify new market segments or services that do not compete directly with mobile network operators' offerings
• MNOs will need to review the terms of their relationship with mobile data MVNOs, viewing them as allies in the value chain, rather than as competitors.

Report author, Sue Uglow, commented: "The current model for no-frills, voice-only MVNOs is under threat from predatory activities by host mobile network operators, although some of the larger players will survive. The model we thought we had for mobile data MVNOs is not working properly: consumers are not yet taking up services in volume because they refuse to pay for data they do not want or need. The matching of mobile data content and service delivery to users' expectations will be key to understanding the roles and responsibilities of MVNOs and their partners. Most companies seeking to mobile-enable their content or information will not be able to achieve this on their own, and will need to develop and maintain partnerships with mobile network operators, MVNEs and other service providers."

About the market research study

The Juniper Research 207-page report, "Consumer MVNOs - Current Status, Future Markets and Strategies (2006-2012)" (January 2007), cuts through the uncertainty, and clarifies the market while affording valuable insight and direction for industry players. It combines a detailed market status from strategically important regions, with an exhaustive range of market forecasts, and case studies of successful implementations around the globe. Regional coverage includes North America, South America, West Europe, East Europe, Far East & China, Indian Sub-Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa and Middle East . The report allows readers to make informed strategic decisions on MVNO strategy, both now and into the future.

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