The global mobile market will go through unprecedented changes over the next few years, as subscriber growth shifts from the world's richer economies to emerging economies and regions with low levels of urbanization, according to a study by Pyramid Research. The analysts forecast the addition of one billion new subscribers to the current 2.8 billion base over the next three years, with 87 percent coming from emerging economies. India -- not China -- will add the most new mobile subscribers, yet together represent only 35 percent of the next billion users.

Today, the share of the population with mobile subscriptions is far higher in the richer economies of the world than in the emerging markets. Regions such as Western Europe exceed 100%, whereas in most of Africa and Southeast Asia penetration rates average less than 20%. It is thus evident that the bulk of future mobile growth will come from emerging economies.

Additional highlights from the Pyramid Research study include:

• Of the 30 fastest-growing markets, 10 are in Africa and the Middle East, and eight are in emerging Asia
• Of the next billion subscribers, 71% will come from parts of the world with urbanization levels below 50%

The analysts caution that any vendor, carrier or investor with global ambitions needs to understand the differences among these markets. Some important factors to consider:

• By 2010, 74% of mobile subscribers will live in emerging economies, and while they will only contribute 40% of global revenue (due to lower average revenue per user), they are among the most profitable given the lower cost of serving them
• There are tremendous difference among and within these emerging markets in terms of end-user preferences
• The mobile networks will be the access points to broadband services in many of these markets.

About this study

Pyramid Research's "The Next Billion: How Emerging Markets Are Shaping the Mobile Industry" executive-level report analyzes the next billion mobile subscriptions in order to provide clients with a clearer understanding of the significance of the emerging markets in future mobile market growth. It offers trends in penetration and total subscriptions as well as figures for such measures as user penetration, churn rates, data ARPS and MOUs for 20 key countries. The report also compares developed market and emerging market forecasts for mobile demand through 2010 by both total subscriptions (prepaid and postpaid) and ARPS (voice and data), as well as forecasts for revenue and other measures.

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